Date: Wed 3rd August, 2011
Description: Office for National Statistics 2008-based Subnational Population Projections for local authorities and higher administrative areas within England were published on 27 May 2010.
Extracts and illustrations are in the attached spreadsheets, for total population (all ages) and broad age groups for Leicestershire, Leicester and Rutland, together with England and East Midlands region.
The ONS Long term subnational population projections are an indication of the future trends in population by age and sex over the next 25 years.
They are trend based projections, which means assumptions for future levels of births, deaths and migration are based on observed levels mainly over the previous five years. They show what the population will be if recent trends in these continue, but this is in fact very unlikely to happen. Nevertheless the national consistency and regular review of the ONS projections makes them widely used.
The projections provided here are based on the revised 2008 mid-year population estimates (published 13 May 2010) and assumptions about future fertility, mortality and migration at local authority level are based upon observed levels over the previous five year period (2004 to 2008). The projections do not take into account any future policy changes that have not yet occurred.
The projected figures do not take account of the ONS population estimates for 2009 and 2010.which are based on actual births, deaths and migration. For instance, total population growth for Leicestershire County averages 3,600 per year from 2008 to 2010 in the estimates, which is lower than the 4,700 per year projected.
Data for other areas within England can be obtained from website ONS subnational population projections.
Source: Subnational Statistics Unit, ONS: Crown Copyright.